Forecasting Methods

Forecasting - Description of Methods

Whitney Brooks

Sep 30, 2025

Forecasting Methods

Below are the forecasting methods that Riskcast supports, each offering a different approach to calculating forecasted hours and cost based on your project’s needs. Whether a user prefers manual inputs, historical trends, budget-based assumptions, or contractual commitments, these methods provide the flexibility to align your forecasts with real-world field conditions and financial goals.

Please note that within the Riskcast Forecasting Screen, fields designated as "Input" below under each "How Its Calculated" section will be the fields that show up in light yellow for a budget code with that specific forecasting method selected. Those fields are editable fields which impact the calculations for the forecasting method.

1. Manual Forecast (MF)

Overview:
The Manual Forecast method gives you control over your forecast by allowing direct input of both forecasted hours and cost. This method is ideal when you want to override system-generated calculations and apply judgment based on field insight, management decisions, or other external factors not reflected in historical data.

How It's Calculated:

Forecast Hours = Input
Forecast Cost = Input
Forecast Hourly Rate = Forecast Cost / Forecast Hours
Forecast Unit Hour = Forecast Hours / Forecast Quantity
Forecast Unit Cost = Forecast Cost / Forecast Quantity

Use Case Example:
A superintendent anticipates a change in crew composition that will improve productivity, or expects material delays that could increase costs. Instead of relying on past performance, they manually input 500 forecast hours and $75,000 forecast cost based on project-specific knowledge. The system calculates the derived rates based on those inputs.

2. Manual Rates (MR)

Overview:
The Manual Rates method allows you to directly input the forecasted unit productivity (Unit Hour) and unit cost for the remaining scope of work. This method is ideal when you want to define expected performance and cost rates yourself, rather than rely on calculated values from budget or historical data. It's especially useful when your expectations for upcoming work differ significantly from past performance.

How It's Calculated:

Forecast Hours = Forecast Quantity x Forecast Unit Hour
Forecast Cost = Forecast Quantity x Forecast Unit Cost
Forecast Hourly Rate = Forecast Cost / Forecast Hours
Forecast Unit Hour = Input
Forecast Unit Cost = Input

Use Case Example:
A project manager knows that the next phase of work will involve easier access and fewer obstructions, allowing the crew to work faster. They enter a lower unit hour rate (e.g., 0.5 hours/unit) and a reduced unit cost. The system uses these inputs to calculate total forecasted hours and cost, giving the PM full control over the expected efficiency and cost projection.

3. Straight Line (SL)

Overview:
The Straight Line method assumes that future performance will mirror past performance. This approach is useful when productivity trends are expected to remain steady for the remainder of the work. It removes variability by projecting forecasts using consistent job-to-date (JTD) average rates.

How It's Calculated:

Forecast Hours = Forecast Quantity x JTD Unit Hour
Forecast Cost = Forecast Quantity x JTD Unit Cost
Forecast Hourly Rate = Forecast Cost / Forecast Hours
Forecast Unit Hour = Forecast Hours / Forecast Quantity
Forecast Unit Cost = Forecast Cost / Forecast Quantity

Use Case Example:
If a crew has consistently placed 100 units per 10 hours so far, the same pace is expected going forward.

4. Production Rate – Actuals (PR-A)

Overview:
The Production Rate – Actuals method allows you to forecast based on expected productivity while tying cost projections to historical performance. You enter the anticipated production rate (as a unit-per-hour value), and the system uses the job-to-date (JTD) actual hourly rate to estimate forecasted cost. This method balances field expectations with the existing cost trend on the project.

How It's Calculated:

Forecast Unit Hour = Input
Forecast Hourly Rate = JTD Cost / JTD Hours
Forecast Hours = Forecast Quantity x Forecast Unit Hour
Forecast Cost = Forecast Hourly Rate x Forecast Hours
Forecast Unit Cost = Forecast Cost / Forecast Quantity

Use Case Example:
A project manager expects the crew to install 0.75 units per hour on an upcoming scope. Instead of using budgeted or overridden rates, the system references the job's current average labor cost per hour (e.g., $85/hour based on actuals). The cost forecast reflects this real rate, ensuring alignment between expected productivity and the project's historical cost trend.

5. Production Rate – Budget (PR-B)

Overview:
The Production Rate – Budget method lets you forecast based on expected productivity while anchoring cost projections to the current budget. You manually enter the anticipated production rate (unit-per-hour), and the system applies the budgeted hourly labor rate to calculate the resulting cost. This method is helpful when you expect productivity to differ from the budget assumptions, but still want to use the approved budgeted cost structure.

How It's Calculated:

Forecast Unit Hour = Input
Forecast Hourly Rate = Current Budget Cost / Current Budget Hours
Forecast Hours = Forecast Quantity x Forecast Unit Hour
Forecast Cost = Forecast Hourly Rate x Forecast Hours
Forecast Unit Cost = Forecast Cost / Forecast Quantity

Use Case Example:
The project manager expects improved crew performance and enters a higher unit production rate. Although productivity is forecasted to improve, the system maintains the budgeted labor rate (e.g., $90/hour) to keep cost projections aligned with original financial targets. This allows the forecast to reflect productivity changes without altering the approved cost baseline.

6. Production Rate – Forecast Hourly Rate (PR-F)

Overview:
The Production Rate – Forecast Hourly Rate method allows you to forecast based on a user-defined productivity rate and a custom hourly rate. Instead of using historical job-to-date or budgeted rates, this method gives you full control over both the expected production and the labor rate applied. This is ideal when you want to model what-if scenarios, account for anticipated rate changes, or override the system with field-informed cost expectations.

How It's Calculated:

Forecast Unit Hour = Input
Forecast Hourly Rate = Input
Forecast Hours = Forecast Quantity x Forecast Unit Hour
Forecast Cost = Forecast Hourly Rate x Forecast Hours
Forecast Unit Cost = Forecast Cost / Forecast Quantity

Use Case Example:
The superintendent expects the crew to work at a faster pace due to better access and improved weather conditions. They also know that upcoming overtime or crew adjustments will increase the effective hourly rate. By manually entering a higher hourly rate and a more efficient production rate, the forecast reflects these anticipated changes with greater precision.

7. Unit Cost – Actuals (UC-A)

Overview:
The Unit Cost – Actuals method allows you to input an expected unit cost for the remaining work, while the system uses job-to-date (JTD) actuals to calculate the effective hourly rate. This method is useful when you want to drive the forecast based on known or expected unit pricing, while still grounding the labor rate in historical job performance. It blends user control over cost with actual cost trends from the field.

How It's Calculated:

Forecast Unit Cost = Input
Forecast Unit Hour = Forecast Hours / Forecast Quantity
Forecast Hourly Rate = JTD Cost / JTD Hours
Forecast Hours = Forecast Cost / Forecast Hourly Rate
Forecast Cost = Forecast Quantity x Forecast Unit Cost

Use Case Example:
A project engineer expects the remaining work to require about $120 of labor per unit based on how the crew typically performs under similar conditions. Instead of adjusting hours manually, they input the desired unit cost, and the system calculates the necessary hours based on the crew’s actual average labor rate to date.

8. Unit Cost – Budget (UC-B)

Overview:
The Unit Cost – Budget method allows you to input an expected unit labor cost, while the system uses the budgeted hourly rate to calculate the time needed to achieve that cost. This method is useful when you want to forecast based on planned cost-per-unit targets, but still adhere to the budgeted labor rate for consistency with the project's original financial plan.

How It's Calculated:

Forecast Unit Cost = Input
Forecast Unit Hour = Forecast Hours / Forecast Quantity
Forecast Hourly Rate = Current Budget Cost / Current Budget Hours
Forecast Hours = Forecast Cost / Forecast Hourly Rate
Forecast Cost = Forecast Quantity x Forecast Unit Cost

Use Case Example:
A project manager is targeting $100 of labor per unit based on initial planning expectations. To maintain alignment with the project’s original budget, the system uses the budgeted hourly rate (e.g., $85/hour) to determine how many hours can be spent while still achieving the input unit cost. This provides a forecast that respects the project's original cost assumptions while allowing unit-level control.

9. Unit Cost – Forecast (UC-F)

Overview:
The Unit Cost – Forecast method gives you full control over both the expected unit cost and the labor hourly rate. This method is ideal when neither the budgeted nor job-to-date cost rates reflect future expectations. It’s designed for users who want to manually define both cost-per-unit and the cost-per-hour values, allowing the system to compute how much labor time is available within those parameters.

How It's Calculated:

Forecast Unit Cost = Input
Forecast Hourly Rate = Input
Forecast Unit Hour = Forecast Hours / Forecast Quantity
Forecast Hours = Forecast Cost / Forecast Hourly Rate
Forecast Cost = Forecast Quantity x Forecast Unit Cost

Use Case Example:
A superintendent anticipates that upcoming work will be completed at $110 per unit, and also expects the crew’s effective hourly rate to rise to $95 due to overtime and staffing changes. They enter both values directly, and the system calculates how many labor hours are allowed while staying within the specified unit cost and rate assumptions.

10. Contractual Method (CM)

Overview:
The Contractual Method bases the forecasted cost on existing contractual commitments associated with the cost code. This method is only available for budget codes with a cost type class of 'Subcontractor'. This method is ideal when costs are driven by contracts—such as vendor agreements, subcontracts, or purchase orders. The forecast automatically includes the total of all committed contract amounts, and users can optionally enter a To Be Committed value to reflect additional expected costs that have not yet been formalized. This ensures the forecast captures the full expected financial exposure.

How It's Calculated:

Forecast Cost to be Committed = input
Forecast Cost = SUM(Contract Amount + To Be Committed)
Forecast Unit Cost = Forecast Cost / Forecast Quantity

Use Case Example:
A project has $250,000 in committed contracts under a cost code for site services. The project manager knows a pending scope increase is likely and enters an additional $30,000 as "To Be Committed." The system calculates the total forecast cost as $280,000 and derives a unit cost by dividing it by the forecast quantity. This gives a complete picture of projected cost exposure tied to contractual obligations.

11. Percent Complete Hours - Actuals (PCHR-A)

Overview:
The Percent Complete Hours – Actuals method is designed for users who prefer to manage forecasts using a percentage of completion based on labor hours rather than production units. Instead of calculating productivity rates, the user inputs a Percent Complete value that represents how much of the total work is complete in terms of hours. The system then calculates the remaining forecasted hours and cost based on job-to-date (JTD) actual performance. This method is particularly useful for teams who track progress using earned hours or estimate completion intuitively.

Note: When no actual hours or costs have been recorded, the system defaults FC Hr Rate to use the budget hourly rate.

How It's Calculated:

FC Qty = Input
PC FC Hrs = Input
FC Hr Rate = JTD Cost / JTD Hours
FC Hrs = JTD Hours / PC FC Hrs
FC Cost = FC Hr Rate x FC Hrs
FC Unit Hour = FC Hrs / FC Qty
FC Unit Cost = FC Cost / FC Qty

Use Case Example: A project manager estimates that a particular cost code is about 60% complete based on labor effort. So far, the crew has logged 480 hours and incurred $40,800 in cost. The system uses this information to back-calculate the total forecasted hours as 800 (480 / 0.60), and then applies the actual hourly rate of $85/hour to derive a total forecasted cost of $68,000. From there, unit-based metrics are calculated automatically.

12. Percent Complete Hours - Budget (PCHR-B)

Overview: The Percent Complete Hours – Budget method allows users to manage forecasts using a percent complete value based on labor hours, while anchoring cost projections to the current project budget. Instead of calculating forecast based on unit productivity, the user inputs a percent complete value representing how much of the work has been completed in terms of hours. The system then uses the budgeted hourly rate to project the remaining cost. This method is ideal for teams that estimate progress in percent terms but still want to maintain alignment with the approved labor budget.

How It's Calculated:

FC Qty = Input
PC FC Hrs = Input
FC Hr Rate = Bud Cost / Bud Hrs
FC Hrs = JTD Hours / PC FC Hrs
FC Cost = FC Hr Rate x FC Hrs
FC Unit Hour = FC Hrs / FC Qty
FC Unit Cost = FC Cost / FC Qty

Use Case Example: The Project Manager estimates that 60% of the labor effort for a piping installation is complete. The crew has logged 480 hours so far. The budget for this cost code is 800 hours and $72,000, resulting in a budgeted hourly rate of $90/hour. Using the 60% input, the system calculates a total forecast of 800 hours (480 / 0.60), and then applies the budgeted rate to calculate a forecast cost of $72,000. This approach helps maintain consistency with original planning assumptions while adapting to percent-complete workflows.

13. Percent Complete Hours - Forecast (PCHR-F)

Overview: The Percent Complete Hours – Forecast method allows users to forecast based on a manually entered percent complete value (in terms of labor hours) and a user-defined hourly rate. This method provides the most flexibility for teams that want to drive forecasts using intuitive percent-based progress estimates and anticipated future labor rates that may differ from both job-to-date and budgeted values. It's particularly useful for modeling expected changes in labor efficiency, wage rates, or crew composition going forward.

How It's Calculated:

FC Qty = Input
PC FC Hrs = Input
FC Hr Rate = Input
FC Hrs = JTD Hours / PC FC Hrs
FC Cost = FC Hr Rate x FC Hrs
FC Unit Hour = FC Hrs / FC Qty
FC Unit Cost = FC Cost / FC Qty

Use Case Example: A superintendent estimates that 60% of the labor effort is complete, based on crew activity and observed progress. The crew has worked 480 hours to date. However, due to anticipated overtime and labor rate increases, the superintendent enters an expected hourly rate of $95/hour. The system calculates a total forecast of 800 hours and a forecasted cost of $76,000, providing a forward-looking estimate that reflects both percent-based progress and future rate assumptions.